As we enter the second half of the year, it’s important for long-term investors to maintain perspective on the major events that have driven markets. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the stock market has experienced a strong rally as investors anticipate the first Fed rate cut and the rally in artificial intelligence stocks continues. During the first six months of the year, the S&P 500 gained 15.3% with dividends, the Nasdaq 18.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 4.8%.
The path of interest rates has been highly uncertain over the past few years due to inflation, economic growth, and the Fed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, for instance, jumped from 3.8% at the end of last year to a high of 4.7% in April, before settling around 4.2% more recently. Higher rates have defied the expectations of investors and economists, creating a challenging environment for the bond market, since rising rates push down bond prices.
As with many things in life, knowing what we’re supposed to do and actually doing it are two separate things. This is true for our health, relationships, careers, and of course, our finances. When it comes to investing, it’s well known that properly diversifying and staying invested are the best ways to achieve long-term financial goals.
After a historically strong start to the year, markets have now pulled back 2.5% to begin the second quarter. Concerns around geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation, corporate earnings, and other issues have led to a market decline, pushing the VIX index of stock market volatility to its highest level in six months. In times of market stress, it’s important for investors to maintain perspective on the critical issues and not overreact to headlines. How can investors understand and weather this period of market volatility?,
Markets continue to be driven by artificial intelligence stocks and the timing of the Fed's first rate cut. Beyond the day-to-day swings, these drivers reflect important trends in innovation, productivity, and the health of the economy.
With the presidential election season heating up, there will no doubt be a flurry of daily headlines between now and election day on November 5. A rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump seems inevitable with Trump currently leading many presidential polls among registered voters while Biden is raising and spending more campaign funds.
The stock market continues to reach new heights, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and the largest technology stocks. In particular, Nvidia, a maker of graphics chips used in artificial intelligence applications, recently helped to push markets higher after it beat Wall Street earnings expectations. This has added to the gains made by the group known as the Magnificent Seven which consists of fast-growing technology companies, many of which have market capitalizations of a trillion dollars or more.
March 2024 Economic Update
